Levadiakos 1-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Panetolikos encounter.

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Analysis

Panetolikos make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1 (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Levadiakos have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Levadiakos have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.

Panetolikos's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Panetolikos away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On a straight form reading, Panetolikos are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Levadiakos 2–2 Panetolikos — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 67% versus Panetolikos 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 58% | Panetolikos 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.98 xG and Panetolikos 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.937 / defence 1.288 | Panetolikos attack 0.902 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.242. Levadiakos's defence rating of 1.288 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panetolikos's projected output up. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 12 games and Panetolikos's last 38.

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 25% | Draw 28% | Panetolikos 47%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 4.02 | Draw 3.54 | Panetolikos 2.13. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 50% (last 6 home games) | Panetolikos 50% (last 10 away games).

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