Levadiakos 1-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees OFI travel to Stadio Levadias to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 0W 2D 2L from 4 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. OFI are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
OFI trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 25% versus OFI 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 50% | OFI 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.92 xG and OFI 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.639 / defence 1.194 | OFI attack 0.996 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.281. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Levadiakos games / 30 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 19% | Draw 33% | OFI 48%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 5.26 | Draw 3.03 | OFI 2.08. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 25% | OFI 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 19% | Draw 33% | OFI 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Levadiakos 0.92 / OFI 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.639 / def 1.194 | OFI attack 0.996 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: OFI (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.52
OFI xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs OFI kick off?
Levadiakos vs OFI kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Levadiakos 1 - 1 OFI.
Where is Levadiakos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs OFI part of?
Levadiakos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 19% chance of winning, OFI a 48% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Levadiakos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
Record (3 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 1 | OFI 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D. OFI (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.64) and OFI's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
19%
5.14
33%
3.06
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.45
1.52
OFI xG
5.14
19%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
4%
23.58
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.52 for OFI, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levadiakos come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.75 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; OFI in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while OFI have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levadiakos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
3
Draws
3
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
From 9 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 3, OFI have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 25%, OFI 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Levadiakos and 75% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 75% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Levadiakos's matches and 75% of OFI's.
Do Levadiakos and OFI tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, OFI in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 5, as Levadiakos and OFI drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.92 xG and OFI 1.52 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.64 / defence 1.19 against OFI attack 1.00 / defence 1.22, drawn from 4/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 19% | Draw 33% | OFI 48%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 50%, OFI 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.