Levadiakos 3-0 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Larisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Larisa in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 13 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levadiakos have posted 6W 1D 3L at Levadia Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Larisa's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Larisa have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Levadiakos's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levadiakos lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Larisa half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Levadiakos 69% and Larisa 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 62% | Larisa 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 2.59 xG and Larisa 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.477 / defence 1.085 | Larisa attack 0.817 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.231. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.477 — their λ of 2.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Levadiakos games / 13 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 70% | Draw 17% | Larisa 14%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Larisa 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 70% | Larisa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 70% | Draw 17% | Larisa 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 61% | xG Levadiakos 2.59 / Larisa 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.477 / def 1.085 | Larisa attack 0.817 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Larisa xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Larisa kick off?
Levadiakos vs Larisa kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Larisa?
Levadiakos 3 - 0 Larisa.
Where is Levadiakos vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Larisa part of?
Levadiakos vs Larisa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 70% chance of winning, Larisa a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Levadiakos and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Larisa?
Record (1 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 0 | Larisa 0W.
What form are Levadiakos and Larisa in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Larisa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Levadiakos's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Larisa's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.59. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.82x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 39/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.5%), 1-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
70%
1.44
17%
6.04
14%
7.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
3.68
1.09
Larisa xG
1.44
70%
Home win
6.04
17%
Draw
7.23
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
7%
13.36
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
1%
96.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.09 for Larisa, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Larisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 6W 4D 3L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Larisa's form line: 1W 5D 7L from 13 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Levadiakos are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Larisa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Larisa have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 1.00 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Larisa in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Larisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Larisa in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while Larisa have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Larisa away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.67 PPG; Larisa away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
0
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Larisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Larisa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Levadiakos 3-0 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Larisa?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 50%, Larisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Levadiakos) and 50% (Larisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Larisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Larisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Levadiakos's matches and 50% of Larisa's.
Do Levadiakos and Larisa tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Larisa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Larisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Larisa 3-0 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 2.59 xG and Larisa 1.09 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Larisa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.48 / defence 1.08 against Larisa attack 0.82 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 70% | Draw 17% | Larisa 14%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 62%, Larisa 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Larisa's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.