Levadiakos 2-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Levadiakos welcome Atromitos to Stadio Levadias. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 0W 3D 6L from 9 outings — a 0.33 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.44 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at Stadio Levadias this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atromitos — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Atromitos's 1.20 PPG return is 0.87 points per game ahead of Levadiakos's 0.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 44% versus Atromitos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 33% | Atromitos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.96 xG and Atromitos 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.769 / defence 1.114 | Atromitos attack 0.981 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.161. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Levadiakos games / 35 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 25% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 40%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Atromitos 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 67% | Atromitos 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 25% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Levadiakos 0.96 / Atromitos 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.769 / def 1.114 | Atromitos attack 0.981 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Atromitos xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Atromitos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Levadiakos 2 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Atromitos part of?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 25% chance of winning, Atromitos a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Levadiakos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Atromitos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
25%
4.02
35%
2.88
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.23
1.27
Atromitos xG
4.02
25%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
7%
14.30
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.27 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 3D 6L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos's form line: 3W 2D 4L from 9 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atromitos are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 games (0.33 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 0.67 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levadiakos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
2
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Atromitos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 67%, Atromitos 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Levadiakos and 33% for Atromitos.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 33% of games; Atromitos in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 33% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Levadiakos's recent games and 33% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Levadiakos defy the odds to beat Atromitos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Atromitos 2-1 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.96 xG and Atromitos 1.27 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against Atromitos attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 9/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 25% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 40%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Levadiakos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 33%, Atromitos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atromitos arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Levadiakos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.