Levadiakos 1-2 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis meet at Stadio Levadias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos at Stadio Levadias this season: 2W 4D 3L from 9 home games — 1.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Levadiakos, 0 for Asteras Tripolis and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 61% versus Asteras Tripolis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 44% | Asteras Tripolis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.03 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.828 / defence 1.121 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.877 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.166. Data: 18 Levadiakos games / 44 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 32% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 38%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Asteras Tripolis 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 44% | Asteras Tripolis 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 32% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Levadiakos 1.03 / Asteras Tripolis 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.828 / def 1.121 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.877 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Asteras Tripolis xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Levadiakos 1 - 2 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 32% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (4 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 3 | Asteras Tripolis 0W.
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.83) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.88x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 18/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
32%
3.09
29%
3.40
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.18
1.15
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.15 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 9D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.39 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 2W 4D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 3W 9D 6L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Asteras Tripolis's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.11 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 44%, Asteras Tripolis 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Levadiakos) and 44% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 33%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 56% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Levadiakos's recent games and 44% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out Levadiakos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Levadiakos 1-2 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.03 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.15 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 18/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 32% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 38%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 44%, Asteras Tripolis 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.00 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.