Larisa 2-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atromitos at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Larisa vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Larisa host Atromitos at AEL FC Arena in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Larisa have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at AEL FC Arena, Larisa have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Larisa are significantly better at AEL FC Arena than their overall form suggests.
Atromitos — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atromitos's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atromitos — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Larisa have won 0, Atromitos 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Larisa in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 59% versus Atromitos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 35% | Atromitos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 0.86 xG and Atromitos 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.787 / defence 1.245 | Atromitos attack 0.929 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Larisa's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Larisa games / 52 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Larisa 24% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 43%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Atromitos 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Larisa 60% | Atromitos 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 9 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 24% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Larisa 0.86 / Atromitos 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.787 / def 1.245 | Atromitos attack 0.929 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Atromitos xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Larisa vs Atromitos kick off?
Larisa vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Atromitos?
Larisa 2 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Larisa vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Atromitos part of?
Larisa vs Atromitos is a Relegation Group - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 24% chance of winning, Atromitos a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Larisa and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Larisa vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Atromitos?
Record (3 meetings): Larisa 0W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Larisa and Atromitos in?
Larisa (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Atromitos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Larisa's attack rating (0.79) and Atromitos's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Larisa's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
24%
4.19
33%
2.99
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.10
1.23
Atromitos xG
4.19
24%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.1 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Larisa and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Larisa and 1.23 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Larisa's recent record stands at 4W 15D 15L from 34 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 13L across 34 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atromitos by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Larisa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Larisa have managed 2W 8D 7L from 17 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 7W 4D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Larisa are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.24 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Current Season
Atromitos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Larisa and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 4W 15D 15L in their last 34 games (0.79 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 11W 10D 13L in their last 34 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.82 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Larisa or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Larisa have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Atromitos in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Larisa's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Larisa
2
Draws
1
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Atromitos?
From 4 meetings on record, Larisa have won 1, Atromitos have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Larisa 2-1 Atromitos.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 65%, Atromitos 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Larisa) and 47% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 41%; Atromitos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Larisa play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Larisa's recent matches and 35% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Larisa vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Larisa's recent games and 47% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and Atromitos tend to score early?
Larisa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Larisa defy the odds to beat Atromitos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Larisa beat Atromitos 2-1 at AEL FC Arena, Relegation Group - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.86 xG and Atromitos 1.23 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Larisa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.79 / defence 1.25 against Atromitos attack 0.93 / defence 0.84, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 24% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 43%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Larisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 35%, Atromitos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atromitos arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Larisa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Atromitos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.