Kifisia 2-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kifisia at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kifisia vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis plays host to Kifisia versus OFI in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Kifisia (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kifisia's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 4L across 9 games at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OFI have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, OFI are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Kifisia 2W, OFI 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with Kifisia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Kifisia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 68% versus OFI 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kifisia 58% | OFI 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.40 xG and OFI 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.782 / defence 1.115 | OFI attack 0.927 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.138. Kifisia's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Kifisia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Kifisia games / 45 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 42% | Draw 26% | OFI 32%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | OFI 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Kifisia dominate the H2H record, yet OFI are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Kifisia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form OFI (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kifisia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kifisia 56% | OFI 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 42% | Draw 26% | OFI 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Kifisia 1.40 / OFI 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.782 / def 1.115 | OFI attack 0.927 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Kifisia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.18
OFI xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs OFI kick off?
Kifisia vs OFI kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs OFI?
Kifisia 2 - 2 OFI.
Where is Kifisia vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs OFI part of?
Kifisia vs OFI is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 42% chance of winning, OFI a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kifisia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kifisia and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and OFI?
Record (4 meetings): Kifisia 2W | Draws 2 | OFI 0W.
What form are Kifisia and OFI in?
Kifisia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. OFI (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kifisia's attack at 0.78x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.93x) against Kifisia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 19/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kifisia Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.80
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Kifisia xG
Total xG
2.57
1.18
OFI xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Kifisia and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.18 for OFI, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kifisia come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 7D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (8W 0D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Kifisia against 1.26 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kifisia's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (3W 0D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kifisia are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.32 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and OFI in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while OFI have gone 8W 0D 11L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or OFI away?
Kifisia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.00 PPG; OFI away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kifisia have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Kifisia
3
Draws
0
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and OFI?
From 5 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 2, OFI have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Kifisia 2-2 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and OFI?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kifisia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 56%, OFI 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Kifisia and 89% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kifisia have failed to score in 33% of games; OFI in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Kifisia's recent matches and 44% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kifisia vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Kifisia's matches and 89% of OFI's.
Do Kifisia and OFI tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, OFI in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kifisia and OFI share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 21, as Kifisia and OFI drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.40 xG and OFI 1.18 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. OFI outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.78 / defence 1.11 against OFI attack 0.93 / defence 1.31, drawn from 19/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 42% | Draw 26% | OFI 32%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 58%, OFI 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kifisia 1.00 PPG, OFI 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.