Kifisia 3-2 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kifisia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kifisia vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Group - 10 sees Larisa travel to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis to take on Kifisia. The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kifisia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kifisia's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Larisa — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Larisa's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kifisia 1.10 PPG, Larisa 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Kifisia have won 0, Larisa 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kifisia in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Larisa in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 57% versus Larisa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 51% | Larisa 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.888 / defence 1.188 | Larisa attack 0.744 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Data: 26 Kifisia games / 26 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 40% | Draw 34% | Larisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Larisa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kifisia are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kifisia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kifisia 40% | Larisa 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 10 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 40% | Draw 34% | Larisa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Kifisia 1.20 / Larisa 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.888 / def 1.188 | Larisa attack 0.744 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Kifisia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Larisa xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs Larisa kick off?
Kifisia vs Larisa kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs Larisa?
Kifisia 3 - 2 Larisa.
Where is Kifisia vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs Larisa part of?
Kifisia vs Larisa is a Relegation Group - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 40% chance of winning, Larisa a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Kifisia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kifisia and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Larisa?
Record (3 meetings): Kifisia 0W | Draws 3 | Larisa 0W.
What form are Kifisia and Larisa in?
Kifisia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Larisa (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kifisia's attack at 0.89x the league average against Larisa's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Larisa's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kifisia Win
40%
2.52
34%
2.98
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Kifisia xG
Total xG
2.14
0.94
Larisa xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
8%
12.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Kifisia and 0.94 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kifisia come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 14D 13L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Larisa sit at 0.86 PPG from 35 outings (5W 15D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kifisia on 1.09 PPG, Larisa on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kifisia's home form reads 4W 6D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Larisa have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (2W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kifisia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.91 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Larisa in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Current Season
Larisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and Larisa in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 8W 14D 13L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Larisa have gone 5W 15D 15L in their last 35 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Larisa away?
Kifisia's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.06 PPG; Larisa away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kifisia's record when hosting Larisa specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Kifisia
3
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Larisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 1, Larisa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Kifisia 3-2 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and Larisa?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 47%, Larisa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Kifisia) and 41% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: Kifisia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kifisia have failed to score in 35% of games; Larisa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play Larisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kifisia's recent matches and 53% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kifisia vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Kifisia's recent games and 41% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kifisia and Larisa tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Larisa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kifisia edge out Larisa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kifisia beat Larisa 3-2 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Relegation Group - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.94 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kifisia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Larisa outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Larisa attack 0.74 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 40% | Draw 34% | Larisa 27%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 51%, Larisa 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Larisa's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kifisia 1.09 PPG, Larisa 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kifisia win broke the near-deadlock. Kifisia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.