Kifisia 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kifisia host Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kifisia — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kifisia have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Kifisia are significantly better at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kifisia, 0 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kifisia in-play tendencies (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 63% versus Aris Thessalonikis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 68% | Aris Thessalonikis 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.35 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.935 / defence 1.503 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.146 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.322. Data: 19 Kifisia games / 45 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 21% | Draw 21% | Aris Thessalonikis 58%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Aris Thessalonikis 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 2.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kifisia 70% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 21% | Draw 21% | Aris Thessalonikis 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Kifisia 1.35 / Aris Thessalonikis 2.28 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.935 / def 1.503 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.146 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
2.28
Aris Thessalonikis xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Kifisia 0 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos.
What competition is Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 21% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (1 meetings): Kifisia 0W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 0W.
What form are Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Kifisia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kifisia's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 2.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 1-3 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
21%
4.68
21%
4.79
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
1 – 3
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Kifisia xG
Total xG
3.62
2.28
Aris Thessalonikis xG
4.68
21%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
10%
9.74
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
2%
45.55
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Kifisia and 2.28 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Kifisia have picked up 0.63 PPG on a 2W 6D 11L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 9W 3D 7L from 19 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kifisia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kifisia have posted 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
The Goals Picture
Kifisia are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.37 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.58 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 2W 6D 11L in their last 19 games (0.63 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 3D 7L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 0.75 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Kifisia or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kifisia have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kifisia's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kifisia
2
Draws
2
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 4 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 0, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kifisia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 62%, Aris Thessalonikis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kifisia) and 50% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 38%; Kifisia have failed to score in 38% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Kifisia's recent matches and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kifisia's recent games and 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Kifisia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Kifisia 0-1 at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.35 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 2.28 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kifisia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.94 / defence 1.50 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 19/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 21% | Draw 21% | Aris Thessalonikis 58%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 68%, Aris Thessalonikis 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.