Ionikos 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ionikos at 51%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias plays host to Ionikos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 17 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ionikos have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Ionikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Aris Thessalonikis are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Ionikos have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Aris Thessalonikis in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.00 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.981 / defence 1.150 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.885 / away 0.291. Data: 1 Ionikos games / 1 Aris Thessalonikis games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ionikos 51% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 13%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 1.96 | Draw 2.78 | Aris Thessalonikis 7.69. Ionikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 15% | BTTS probability 19% | Total xG 1.35. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 85% probability — total xG of 1.35 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 81% — Aris Thessalonikis's lower xG of 0.35 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 19%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ionikos at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ionikos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 15% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 51% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 15% | BTTS 19% | xG Ionikos 1.00 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.35 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.981 / def 1.150 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.885 / away 0.291 • Poisson stance: Ionikos (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
0.35
Aris Thessalonikis xG
19%
BTTS
39%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Ionikos 1 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 51% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 13% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Ionikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 19% probability that both Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 15%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Ionikos (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ionikos's attack at 0.98x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.85x) against Ionikos's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.35.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 27.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (24.7%), 2-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ionikos Win
51%
1.95
36%
2.79
13%
7.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
25.9%
Home win
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Ionikos xG
Total xG
1.35
0.35
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.95
51%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
7.83
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
39%
Over 1.5
2.56
61%
Under 1.5
1.64
15%
Over 2.5
6.67
85%
Under 2.5
1.18
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
19%
BTTS Yes
5.36
81%
BTTS No
1.23
Clean Sheet
70%
1.42
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
36%
2.76
5%
21.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.9 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 25.9 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 27.1%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ionikos and 0.35 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ionikos's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ionikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ionikos heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Ionikos are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ionikos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Aris Thessalonikis in 0%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Ionikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ionikos have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ionikos
0
Draws
2
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 4 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Ionikos 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ionikos's recent matches and 0% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Ionikos's recent games and 0% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ionikos edge out Aris Thessalonikis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.00 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.35 xG, a combined 1.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 51% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 13%, with Ionikos to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 15%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 39% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 19% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 100%, Aris Thessalonikis 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Ionikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ionikos scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.