Atromitos 0-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atromitos face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees PAOK travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 February 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 2.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Atromitos register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PAOK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atromitos, 3 for PAOK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atromitos trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
PAOK trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 57% versus PAOK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 38% | PAOK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.20 xG and PAOK 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.854 / defence 1.115 | PAOK attack 1.691 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.350. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.691 — the away xG of 2.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Atromitos games / 46 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 15% | Draw 19% | PAOK 66%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 6.67 | Draw 5.26 | PAOK 1.52. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 2.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 60% | PAOK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 15% | Draw 19% | PAOK 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 65% | xG Atromitos 1.20 / PAOK 2.54 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.854 / def 1.115 | PAOK attack 1.691 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: PAOK (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
2.54
PAOK xG
65%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs PAOK kick off?
Atromitos vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Atromitos 0 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Atromitos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs PAOK part of?
Atromitos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 15% chance of winning, PAOK a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Atromitos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAOK?
Record (5 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 1 | PAOK 3W.
What form are Atromitos and PAOK in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.85x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 2.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 1-3 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
15%
6.47
19%
5.31
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Atromitos xG
Total xG
3.75
2.54
PAOK xG
6.47
15%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
8%
12.74
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
1%
82.43
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Atromitos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Atromitos and 2.54 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 14W 19D 20L from 53 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 32W 11D 10L across 53 games — 2.02 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 9W 12D 5L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 13W 7D 6L across 26 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.06 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 14W 19D 20L in their last 53 games (1.15 PPG), while PAOK have gone 32W 11D 10L in their last 53 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.50 PPG; PAOK away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Atromitos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, PAOK in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2024, when PAOK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
1
Draws
7
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, PAOK have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Atromitos 2-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 46%, PAOK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Atromitos) and 58% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; PAOK in 31%; Atromitos have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Atromitos's recent matches and 54% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Atromitos's recent games and 58% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and PAOK tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, PAOK in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Atromitos 0-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.20 xG and PAOK 2.54 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against PAOK attack 1.69 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 15% | Draw 19% | PAOK 66%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 38%, PAOK 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.