Atromitos 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Atromitos take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 January 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Peristeriou this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Atromitos, 2 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 45% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 39% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 0.92 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.010 / defence 0.828 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.344 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.011. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — the away xG of 1.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Atromitos games / 44 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 37% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 40% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 37% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Atromitos 0.92 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.010 / def 0.828 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.344 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Atromitos 1 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 26% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 37% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (3 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2W.
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.01x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.80
37%
2.71
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.05
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.80
26%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 14.5 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.12 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos come into this having played 51 games, going 14W 14D 23L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.24 PPG from 51 outings (34W 12D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atromitos's home form reads 10W 7D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 2.08 points per game from 25 outings (15W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.73 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 14W 14D 23L in their last 51 games (1.10 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 34W 12D 5L in their last 51 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.48 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Atromitos
3
Draws
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Atromitos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 48%, Olympiakos Piraeus 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Atromitos) and 52% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 44%; Atromitos have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Atromitos's recent matches and 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Atromitos's recent games and 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 19, as Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 0.92 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.12 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.01 / defence 0.83 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.34 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 26% | Draw 37% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 39%, Olympiakos Piraeus 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.