Atromitos 3-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Peristeriou plays host to Atromitos versus Lamia in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Thursday 10 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 2W 1D 5L this season (8 games, 0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 2W 3D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Atromitos, 0.90 for Lamia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Atromitos, 0 for Lamia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Lamia — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 50% versus Lamia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 56% | Lamia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 0.84 xG and Lamia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.923 / defence 1.356 | Lamia attack 0.598 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.178. Data: 18 Atromitos games / 19 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 31% | Draw 33% | Lamia 37%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Lamia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Atromitos's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Lamia 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 31% | Draw 33% | Lamia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Atromitos 0.84 / Lamia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.923 / def 1.356 | Lamia attack 0.598 / def 0.952 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Lamia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Lamia xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Lamia kick off?
Atromitos vs Lamia kicked off at 15:15 on Thursday 10 February 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Lamia?
Atromitos 3 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Atromitos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Lamia part of?
Atromitos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 31% chance of winning, Lamia a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Atromitos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Lamia?
Record (1 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 1 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Atromitos and Lamia in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Lamia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.92x the league average against Lamia's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.60x) against Atromitos's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
31%
3.27
33%
3.05
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Atromitos xG
Total xG
1.80
0.96
Lamia xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.96 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Atromitos have picked up 0.56 PPG on a 2W 4D 12L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 4W 6D 8L from 18 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lamia are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atromitos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 2W 4D 12L in their last 18 games (0.56 PPG), while Lamia have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Lamia away?
Lamia's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.88 PPG; Lamia away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atromitos go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atromitos
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Lamia 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Lamia?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 50%, Lamia 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atromitos) and 25% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Lamia in 50%; Atromitos have failed to score in 38% of games; Lamia in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atromitos's recent matches and 25% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atromitos's recent games and 25% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Lamia tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lamia in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Lamia 3-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 0.84 xG and Lamia 0.96 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.92 / defence 1.36 against Lamia attack 0.60 / defence 0.95, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 31% | Draw 33% | Lamia 37%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Atromitos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 56%, Lamia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lamia arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Atromitos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.