Asteras Tripolis 0-0 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to face Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Asteras Tripolis (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Asteras Tripolis have posted 2W 0D 3L at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 3W 2D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.83 PPG. They are averaging 2.17 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 1.00 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 42% versus AEK Athens FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 25% | AEK Athens FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.73 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.199 / defence 1.255 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.169 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.257. AEK Athens FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Asteras Tripolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Asteras Tripolis games / 12 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 37% | Draw 22% | AEK Athens FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | AEK Athens FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 40% | AEK Athens FC 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 37% | Draw 22% | AEK Athens FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.73 / AEK Athens FC 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.199 / def 1.255 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.169 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.84
AEK Athens FC xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 0 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 37% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 1.20x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.17x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
37%
2.73
22%
4.55
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
3.57
1.84
AEK Athens FC xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
6%
17.28
7%
13.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.84 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 4D 5L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 2.17 PPG from 12 outings (8W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.08 scored and 1.17 conceded. AEK Athens FC's attacking output running into Asteras Tripolis's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Last 12 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 2D 2L in their last 12 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.20 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: AEK Athens FC have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 0-3 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
8
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 40%, AEK Athens FC 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Asteras Tripolis and 80% for AEK Athens FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play AEK Athens FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Asteras Tripolis's games and 80% of AEK Athens FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Asteras Tripolis's matches and 80% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Asteras Tripolis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 13, as Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.73 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.84 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.7 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.20 / defence 1.25 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.17 / defence 1.31, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 37% | Draw 22% | AEK Athens FC 41%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 25%, AEK Athens FC 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.