Aris Thessalonikis 0-5 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Aris Thessalonikis welcome PAS Giannina to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 5W 2D 2L from 9 Super League 1 matches — 1.89 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have recorded 3W 4D 2L from 9 outings — 1.44 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina away from home this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.89 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.44 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Aris Thessalonikis's 25% and PAS Giannina's 25% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 44% versus PAS Giannina 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 44% | PAS Giannina 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.09 xG and PAS Giannina 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.058 / defence 0.911 | PAS Giannina attack 0.631 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.171. Data: 9 Aris Thessalonikis games / 9 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 36% | PAS Giannina 20%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | PAS Giannina 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — PAS Giannina's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 25% | PAS Giannina 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 36% | PAS Giannina 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.09 / PAS Giannina 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.058 / def 0.911 | PAS Giannina attack 0.631 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.67
PAS Giannina xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 5 PAS Giannina.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 43% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 20% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. PAS Giannina (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.06) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
43%
2.32
36%
2.74
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.76
0.67
PAS Giannina xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.90
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.67 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 5W 2D 2L from 9 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 2L across 9 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; PAS Giannina in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or PAS Giannina away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.00 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
PAS Giannina tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Aris Thessalonikis 25% BTTS, PAS Giannina 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Aris Thessalonikis and 0% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 50%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 50% of games; PAS Giannina in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 25% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 0% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAS Giannina run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Aris Thessalonikis 0-5 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.09 xG and PAS Giannina 0.67 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PAS Giannina outscored their 0.67 projection by 4.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against PAS Giannina attack 0.63 / defence 0.97, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 36% | PAS Giannina 20%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a PAS Giannina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 44%, PAS Giannina 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with PAS Giannina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.