Aris Thessalonikis 1-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Aris Thessalonikis take on PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 19 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
PAOK (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 31% versus PAOK 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 42% | PAOK 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 xG and PAOK 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.400 / defence 0.902 | PAOK attack 1.226 / defence 0.690. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.997. Aris Thessalonikis carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 1.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK's defence strength of 0.690 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 34% | Draw 36% | PAOK 29%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | PAOK 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | PAOK 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 34% | Draw 36% | PAOK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 / PAOK 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.400 / def 0.902 | PAOK attack 1.226 / def 0.690 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.10
PAOK xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 34% chance of winning, PAOK a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. PAOK (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 1.40x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.23x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
36%
2.76
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.31
1.10
PAOK xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.10 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 30W 12D 20L from 62 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 34W 16D 12L across 62 games — 1.90 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.90 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 18W 8D 5L from 31 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 15W 9D 7L across 31 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.63 scored and 0.77 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; PAOK in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 30W 12D 20L in their last 62 games (1.65 PPG), while PAOK have gone 34W 16D 12L in their last 62 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or PAOK away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.00 PPG; PAOK away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, PAOK in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, PAOK have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 32%, PAOK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 42% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; PAOK in 45%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 42% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 42% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, PAOK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-2 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 xG and PAOK 1.10 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.40 / defence 0.90 against PAOK attack 1.23 / defence 0.69, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 34% | Draw 36% | PAOK 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 42%, PAOK 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.65 PPG, PAOK 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.