Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ionikos make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 20 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Super League 1 appearances (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ionikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Aris Thessalonikis. A 0.80 PPG lead over Ionikos (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 0W, Ionikos 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Ionikos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ionikos — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 36% versus Ionikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 36% | Ionikos 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.36 xG and Ionikos 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.926 / defence 1.238 | Ionikos attack 0.799 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.246. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Aris Thessalonikis games / 14 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 26% | Ionikos 34%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Ionikos 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 17% | Ionikos 43% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Monday 20 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 26% | Ionikos 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.36 / Ionikos 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.926 / def 1.238 | Ionikos attack 0.799 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Ionikos xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 20 December 2021 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 0 Ionikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 40% chance of winning, Ionikos a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos?
Record (1 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 0W | Draws 0 | Ionikos 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Ionikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Ionikos's attack (0.80x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.79
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.60
1.23
Ionikos xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.23 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 7W 3D 4L from 14 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ionikos, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 6L across 14 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ionikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ionikos's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 0.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Ionikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.83 PPG; Ionikos away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ionikos in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ionikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
2
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos?
From 4 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Ionikos have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Ionikos 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 50% (Ionikos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 50% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Ionikos in 33%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 50% of games; Ionikos in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 50% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 50% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Ionikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Ionikos 1-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.36 xG and Ionikos 1.23 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ionikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.93 / defence 1.24 against Ionikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.37, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 26% | Ionikos 34%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 36%, Ionikos 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ionikos's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.