Apollon Smirnis 0-3 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Apollon Smirnis vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Apollon Smirnis host OFI at Stadio Georgios Kamaras in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 12 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Apollon Smirnis — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Apollon Smirnis at Stadio Georgios Kamaras this season: 1W 4D 2L from 7 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Kamaras. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 1L across 7 road games this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. OFI's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Apollon Smirnis's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Apollon Smirnis trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
OFI trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Apollon Smirnis 38% versus OFI 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Apollon Smirnis 46% | OFI 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.64 xG and OFI 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.687 / defence 0.915 | OFI attack 0.818 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.168. Apollon Smirnis's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Apollon Smirnis games / 16 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 36% | OFI 39%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | OFI 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.51. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.51 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Apollon Smirnis's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 19% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Apollon Smirnis 29% | OFI 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 36% | OFI 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.64 / OFI 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.687 / def 0.915 | OFI attack 0.818 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: OFI (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
0.87
OFI xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs OFI kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs OFI kicked off at 15:15 on Wednesday 12 January 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs OFI?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 3 OFI.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs OFI part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs OFI is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 25% chance of winning, OFI a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Apollon Smirnis and OFI in?
Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. OFI (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against OFI's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.64. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Apollon Smirnis's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
25%
3.99
36%
2.77
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
1.51
0.87
OFI xG
3.99
25%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.63
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.0 | 19.2 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.6%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 0.87 for OFI, a combined total of 1.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Apollon Smirnis's recent record stands at 1W 5D 7L from 13 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 3L across 13 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours OFI by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Apollon Smirnis heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Apollon Smirnis have managed 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.62 PPG overall — Apollon Smirnis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OFI's away record stands at 3W 2D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.54 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.15 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OFI in 62%.
Defensively: Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Apollon Smirnis and OFI in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while OFI have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 1.17 PPG; OFI away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Apollon Smirnis or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, OFI in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Apollon Smirnis and OFI runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2022, when OFI won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Apollon Smirnis
0
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and OFI?
From 3 meetings on record, Apollon Smirnis have won 1, OFI have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when OFI 1-2 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Apollon Smirnis tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Apollon Smirnis 17% BTTS, OFI 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Apollon Smirnis and 33% for OFI.
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; OFI in 33%; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 67% of games; OFI in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Apollon Smirnis play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 50% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Apollon Smirnis vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Apollon Smirnis's recent games and 33% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Apollon Smirnis and OFI tend to score early?
Apollon Smirnis have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, OFI in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Apollon Smirnis 0-3 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.64 xG and OFI 0.87 xG, a combined 1.51. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. OFI outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.69 / defence 0.92 against OFI attack 0.82 / defence 0.87, drawn from 13/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 36% | OFI 39%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 46%, OFI 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.