AEK Athens FC 1-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Volos NFC travel to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis to take on AEK Athens FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 January 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 3L across 8 games at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis this term (1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
Volos NFC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 1W 3D 4L from 8 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
AEK Athens FC are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AEK Athens FC 50% and Volos NFC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AEK Athens FC 61% | Volos NFC 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.71 xG and Volos NFC 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.104 / defence 1.223 | Volos NFC attack 1.055 / defence 1.614. League average goals — home 0.957 / away 1.156. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.614 — this is suppressing AEK Athens FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 AEK Athens FC games / 18 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 23% | Volos NFC 34%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Volos NFC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 50% | Volos NFC 88% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 23% | Volos NFC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.71 / Volos NFC 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.104 / def 1.223 | Volos NFC attack 1.055 / def 1.614 | league avg home 0.957 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Volos NFC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 43% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
43%
2.33
23%
4.29
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
3.20
1.49
Volos NFC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.49 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 11W 3D 4L from 18 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 9L across 18 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 5W 0D 3L from 8 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 1W 3D 4L across 8 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Volos NFC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.56 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC in 72%.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 11W 3D 4L in their last 18 games (2.00 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Volos NFC away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 1.88 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.75 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Dec 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 8, Volos NFC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-2 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AEK Athens FC at 50%, Volos NFC at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for AEK Athens FC and 75% for Volos NFC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of AEK Athens FC's games and 88% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 75% of Volos NFC's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat AEK Athens FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat AEK Athens FC 1-2 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.71 xG and Volos NFC 1.49 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.22 against Volos NFC attack 1.05 / defence 1.61, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 23% | Volos NFC 34%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 61%, Volos NFC 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Volos NFC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.