AEK Athens FC 1-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's home record at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis: 5W 0D 2L from 7 Super League 1 appearances (2.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
Panetolikos (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's away record: 2W 1D 5L from 8 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in AEK Athens FC's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AEK Athens FC 1W, Panetolikos 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 50% versus Panetolikos 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AEK Athens FC 62% | Panetolikos 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.73 xG and Panetolikos 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.139 / defence 1.147 | Panetolikos attack 0.673 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.060 / away 1.130. Panetolikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing AEK Athens FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 AEK Athens FC games / 16 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 58% | Draw 24% | Panetolikos 19%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Panetolikos 5.26. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 43% | Panetolikos 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 58% | Draw 24% | Panetolikos 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.73 / Panetolikos 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.139 / def 1.147 | Panetolikos attack 0.673 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.060 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Panetolikos xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 58% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos?
Record (1 meetings): AEK Athens FC 1W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.67x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.24
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.60
0.87
Panetolikos xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
3%
30.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.87 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AEK Athens FC come into this having played 16 games, going 10W 3D 3L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panetolikos sit at 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AEK Athens FC's home form reads 5W 0D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Panetolikos have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.00 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos in 62%.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 10W 3D 3L in their last 16 games (2.06 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Panetolikos away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.14 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.57 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AEK Athens FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 0-5 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
2
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, Panetolikos have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Panetolikos 0-5 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 43%, Panetolikos 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for AEK Athens FC and 57% for Panetolikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Panetolikos in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 43% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 57% of Panetolikos's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat AEK Athens FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat AEK Athens FC 1-2 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.73 xG and Panetolikos 0.87 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Panetolikos attack 0.67 / defence 1.43, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 58% | Draw 24% | Panetolikos 19%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Panetolikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 62%, Panetolikos 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Panetolikos's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Panetolikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.