AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to OPAP Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at OPAP Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 2.40 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Olympiakos Piraeus's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — AEK Athens FC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 32% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.43 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 0.940 / defence 0.926 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.076 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.152. Data: 28 AEK Athens FC games / 29 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 41% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: AEK Athens FC 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 41% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.43 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 0.940 / def 0.926 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.076 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 41% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 0.94x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.08x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (28/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.28
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.58
1.15
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.15 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 27W 6D 5L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 23W 10D 5L from 38 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.29 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 2.08 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.50 PPG from 18 outings (14W 3D 1L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 9W 6D 3L from 18 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.53 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.05 scored and 0.63 conceded. AEK Athens FC's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 27W 6D 5L in their last 38 games (2.29 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 23W 10D 5L in their last 38 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.83 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 28% (AEK Athens FC) and 39% (Olympiakos Piraeus) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (AEK Athens FC) and 44% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 72% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 39% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 4, as AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.43 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 28/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 41% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 50%, Olympiakos Piraeus 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 2.29 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.