VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Volkswagen Arena, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfL Wolfsburg register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Borussia Mönchengladbach, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 0–4 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 54% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 57% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.67 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.942 / defence 1.111 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.926 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.414. Data: 61 VfL Wolfsburg games / 61 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 41% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 32%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 90% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 41% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.67 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.942 / def 1.111 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.926 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 41% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (5 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 0W | Draws 2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.94) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.93x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.71
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.12
1.45
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.45 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 17D 24L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.16 PPG from 61 outings (17W 20D 24L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.16 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 10W 11D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 0.63 points per game from 30 outings (2W 13D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.61 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 66%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 20W 17D 24L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 17W 20D 24L in their last 61 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.37 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for VfL Wolfsburg, 77% for Borussia Mönchengladbach — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for VfL Wolfsburg and 70% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 77% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.67 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.45 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 41% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 32%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Borussia Mönchengladbach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 57%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.