VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 41%, yet the head-to-head data favours Borussia Mönchengladbach — this VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 80% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Borussia Mönchengladbach, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2023, ended VfL Wolfsburg 0–4 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a Borussia Mönchengladbach win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 54% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 57% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.67 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.942 / defence 1.111 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.926 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.414. Data: built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 61 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 61.
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 41% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 32%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.43 | Draw 3.71 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Wolfsburg 90% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 28 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 41% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.67 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.942 / def 1.111 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.926 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach FAQs
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 28) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 41% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.94) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.93x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 61 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.71
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.12
1.45
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.45 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 17D 24L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.16 PPG from 61 outings (17W 20D 24L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.16 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 10W 11D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 0.63 points per game from their last 30 away games (2W 13D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.61 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 66%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg (Home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Form FAQs
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 20W 17D 24L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 17W 20D 24L in their last 61 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.37 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Mönchengladbach won Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for VfL Wolfsburg, 77% for Borussia Mönchengladbach — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for VfL Wolfsburg and 70% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 77% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 83% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.67 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.45 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 41% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 32%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Borussia Mönchengladbach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 57%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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