VfL Bochum 1-3 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Bochum at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 4 as VfL Bochum welcome Hertha BSC to Vonovia Ruhrstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Bochum have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. VfL Bochum have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfL Bochum 1.00 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 33% versus Hertha BSC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfL Bochum 33% | Hertha BSC 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 2.04 xG and Hertha BSC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.959 / defence 0.954 | Hertha BSC attack 0.805 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.292. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing VfL Bochum's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 VfL Bochum games / 37 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 59% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 15%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Hertha BSC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to VfL Bochum (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Bochum at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VfL Bochum 33% | Hertha BSC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 59% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG VfL Bochum 2.04 / Hertha BSC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.959 / def 0.954 | Hertha BSC attack 0.805 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Hertha BSC xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC kick off?
VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC?
VfL Bochum 1 - 3 Hertha BSC.
Where is VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC part of?
VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 59% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VfL Bochum and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and Hertha BSC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Bochum and Hertha BSC in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VfL Bochum's attack rating (0.96) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus VfL Bochum's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
59%
1.71
27%
3.75
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
3.03
0.99
Hertha BSC xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
2%
51.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 0.99 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfL Bochum come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L. It's still early in the season for VfL Bochum, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Bochum carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 0.67 scored and 3.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Early Season
Hertha BSC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have VfL Bochum or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Bochum have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfL Bochum's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
VfL Bochum
3
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Hertha BSC 1-1 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and Hertha BSC?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 33%, Hertha BSC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for VfL Bochum and 100% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; VfL Bochum have failed to score in 33% of games; Hertha BSC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 67% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of VfL Bochum's matches and 100% of Hertha BSC's.
Do VfL Bochum and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfL Bochum.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat VfL Bochum 1-3 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 2.04 xG and Hertha BSC 0.99 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfL Bochum fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Hertha BSC attack 0.81 / defence 1.24, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 59% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 15%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Hertha BSC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 33%, Hertha BSC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Bochum arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfL Bochum shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.