VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MHPArena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in VfB Stuttgart's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfB Stuttgart lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 4–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 61% versus Werder Bremen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | Werder Bremen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.83 xG and Werder Bremen 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.062 / defence 0.762 | Werder Bremen attack 0.841 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.452. VfB Stuttgart's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 VfB Stuttgart games / 64 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 58% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 18%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Werder Bremen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: VfB Stuttgart 30% | Werder Bremen 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 58% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.83 / Werder Bremen 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.062 / def 0.762 | Werder Bremen attack 0.841 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Werder Bremen xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 58% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
Record (9 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 4W | Draws 2 | Werder Bremen 3W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.06) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.84x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.25
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.76
0.93
Werder Bremen xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
3%
33.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.93 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 31W 13D 20L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Werder Bremen's form line: 22W 16D 26L from 64 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.28 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.81 PPG from 32 outings (18W 4D 10L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 12W 6D 14L from 32 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.39 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 31W 13D 20L in their last 64 games (1.66 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 22W 16D 26L in their last 64 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Werder Bremen away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.81 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 53%, Werder Bremen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for VfB Stuttgart and 69% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Werder Bremen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 53% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 69% of Werder Bremen's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen finished level at 1-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.83 xG and Werder Bremen 0.93 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.06 / defence 0.76 against Werder Bremen attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 58% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 18%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, Werder Bremen 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.66 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.