VfB Stuttgart 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Eintracht Frankfurt at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at Mercedes-Benz-Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfB Stuttgart at 1.00 PPG versus Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 2–3 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 65% and Eintracht Frankfurt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 48% | Eintracht Frankfurt 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.32 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.823 / defence 0.922 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.112 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.548. Data: 40 VfB Stuttgart games / 40 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 32% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 44%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 80% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 32% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.32 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.823 / def 0.922 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.112 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 32% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (2 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
32%
3.17
25%
4.02
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.91
1.59
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
3.17
32%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
6%
15.48
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.59 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 7W 17D 16L from 40 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 14L across 40 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 0.95 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 5W 6D 8L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 7W 6D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.40 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 17D 16L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 12W 14D 14L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.11 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 74%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (VfB Stuttgart) and 47% (Eintracht Frankfurt).
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart have failed to score in 26% of games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 47% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat VfB Stuttgart 1-3 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.32 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.59 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.11 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 32% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 44%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 48%, Eintracht Frankfurt 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 0.95 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.