VfB Stuttgart 3-3 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfB Stuttgart face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 4W 1D 5L at Mercedes-Benz-Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at Mercedes-Benz-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Dortmund are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Borussia Dortmund, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for VfB Stuttgart.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–5 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 66% and Borussia Dortmund 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 56% | Borussia Dortmund 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.29 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.797 / defence 0.961 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.127 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.281. VfB Stuttgart's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 VfB Stuttgart games / 61 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 33% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 37%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Borussia Dortmund 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 60% | Borussia Dortmund 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 33% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.29 / Borussia Dortmund 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.797 / def 0.961 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.127 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.765 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Borussia Dortmund xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 3 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 33% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (3 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 3W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
33%
3.08
30%
3.28
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.68
1.39
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.34
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.39 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 61 games, going 12W 20D 29L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 2.05 PPG from 61 outings (40W 5D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 10W 7D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.73 points per game from 30 outings (16W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.36 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 67%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 12W 20D 29L in their last 61 games (0.92 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 40W 5D 16L in their last 61 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.23 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 70%, Borussia Dortmund at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (VfB Stuttgart) and 60% (Borussia Dortmund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 63% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 60% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 28, as VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.29 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.39 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.13 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 33% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 37%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 56%, Borussia Dortmund 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.