VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund at MHPArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 7W 2D 1L at MHPArena — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfB Stuttgart 2.10 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Borussia Dortmund and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and Borussia Dortmund 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | Borussia Dortmund 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.42 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.011 / defence 0.773 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.186 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.440. VfB Stuttgart's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 VfB Stuttgart games / 61 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 39% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 35%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Dortmund 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 50% | Borussia Dortmund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 39% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.42 / Borussia Dortmund 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.011 / def 0.773 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.186 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Borussia Dortmund xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfB Stuttgart 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 39% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (9 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 4W | Draws 2 | Borussia Dortmund 3W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.84
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.74
1.32
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.32 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 61 games, going 30W 13D 18L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.93 PPG from 61 outings (35W 13D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.69 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 17W 4D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.57 points per game from 30 outings (13W 8D 9L).
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.11 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 62%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 30W 13D 18L in their last 61 games (1.69 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 35W 13D 13L in their last 61 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.83 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.57 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 57%, Borussia Dortmund 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for VfB Stuttgart and 63% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 70% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 63% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat VfB Stuttgart 0-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.42 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.32 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.01 / defence 0.77 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.19 / defence 0.81, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 39% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 35%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Borussia Dortmund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, Borussia Dortmund 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.69 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.