VfB Stuttgart 5-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund at MHPArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 7W 3D 0L at MHPArena — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfB Stuttgart 2.00 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Borussia Dortmund and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 60% versus Borussia Dortmund 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 76% | Borussia Dortmund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.80 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.289 / defence 0.994 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.808 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.670. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 VfB Stuttgart games / 37 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 46% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 27%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Dortmund 3.70. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 60% | Borussia Dortmund 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 46% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.80 / Borussia Dortmund 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.289 / def 0.994 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.808 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.670 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Borussia Dortmund xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfB Stuttgart 5 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 46% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (6 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 2W | Draws 1 | Borussia Dortmund 3W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.66
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.14
1.34
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
4%
22.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.34 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 37 games, going 24W 5D 8L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.89 PPG from 37 outings (20W 10D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 2.08 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 13W 4D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.72 points per game from 18 outings (8W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 1.22 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 24W 5D 8L in their last 37 games (2.08 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 20W 10D 7L in their last 37 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.39 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.72 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 61%, Borussia Dortmund 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for VfB Stuttgart and 56% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Borussia Dortmund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 61% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 56% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Borussia Dortmund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund 5-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.80 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.34 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.29 / defence 0.99 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.81 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 46% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 27%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 76%, Borussia Dortmund 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 2.08 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.94 average — above their attacking norm. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.