Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Union Berlin welcome RB Leipzig to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, RB Leipzig have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 1.50 (RB Leipzig). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RB Leipzig in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Union Berlin, 3 for RB Leipzig and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with RB Leipzig winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
RB Leipzig trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 58% versus RB Leipzig 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Berlin 62% | RB Leipzig 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.87 xG and RB Leipzig 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.768 / defence 0.972 | RB Leipzig attack 0.855 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 2.023 / away 1.400. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. RB Leipzig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Union Berlin games / 40 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 54% | Draw 23% | RB Leipzig 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | RB Leipzig 4.17. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 60% | RB Leipzig 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 54% | Draw 23% | RB Leipzig 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Union Berlin 1.87 / RB Leipzig 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.768 / def 0.972 | RB Leipzig attack 0.855 / def 1.203 | league avg home 2.023 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.16
RB Leipzig xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026.
What competition is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig part of?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 54% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union Berlin and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Record (10 meetings): Union Berlin 5W | Draws 2 | RB Leipzig 3W.
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.43
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.03
1.16
RB Leipzig xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
4%
27.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.16 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 11D 18L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, RB Leipzig sit at 1.85 PPG from 40 outings (23W 5D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 5W 9D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Leipzig have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (8W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.05 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
RB Leipzig
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 23W 5D 12L in their last 40 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.20 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when RB Leipzig won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
2
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, RB Leipzig have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 65%, RB Leipzig 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Union Berlin and 65% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Union Berlin's games and 60% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Union Berlin's matches and 65% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Union Berlin and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.