Union Berlin 0-0 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Schalke 04 make the trip to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to face Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Schalke 04's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04 away from home this season: 0W 3D 6L from 9 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Union Berlin. A 0.80 PPG lead over FC Schalke 04 (1.30 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Union Berlin 0W, FC Schalke 04 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Schalke 04 — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 70% versus FC Schalke 04 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 55% | FC Schalke 04 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.63 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.168 / defence 0.981 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.653 / defence 1.837. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.446. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.837 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Union Berlin games / 20 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 73% | Draw 16% | FC Schalke 04 10%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | FC Schalke 04 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | FC Schalke 04 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 73% | Draw 16% | FC Schalke 04 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 57% | xG Union Berlin 2.63 / FC Schalke 04 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.168 / def 0.981 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.653 / def 1.837 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.63
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC Schalke 04 xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 13 February 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
Union Berlin 0 - 0 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 73% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04?
Record (1 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 1 | FC Schalke 04 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 1.17x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.84x — combine the two and it projects 2.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Schalke 04's attack (0.65x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
73%
1.37
16%
6.08
10%
9.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.63
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.56
0.93
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.08
16%
Draw
9.63
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
7%
13.86
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
1%
133.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.93 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 7W 8D 5L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04's form line: 1W 5D 14L from 20 games, 0.40 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union Berlin are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Schalke 04.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (4W 5D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 0W 3D 6L from 9 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 0.75 scored and 2.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 7W 8D 5L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 5D 14L in their last 20 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.89 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 1-6 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
3
Draws
0
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04?
From 4 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 1, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Union Berlin 0-0 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 67%, FC Schalke 04 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Union Berlin and 89% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Schalke 04 in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union Berlin's games and 56% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Union Berlin's matches and 89% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union Berlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 21, as Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.63 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.93 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 2.6 short of their projected output. FC Schalke 04 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.65 / defence 1.84, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 73% | Draw 16% | FC Schalke 04 10%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 55%, FC Schalke 04 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.