SV Darmstadt 98 0-6 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Augsburg travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98 in Bundesliga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SV Darmstadt 98 — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, FC Augsburg have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Augsburg away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Augsburg are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 0 for FC Augsburg and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended SV Darmstadt 98 2–1 FC Augsburg — a SV Darmstadt 98 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 53% versus FC Augsburg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 53% | FC Augsburg 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SV Darmstadt 98 surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while FC Augsburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC Augsburg surrender HT leads in 56% of cases while SV Darmstadt 98 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.06 xG and FC Augsburg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.650 / defence 1.360 | FC Augsburg attack 0.861 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.257. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.650 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.360 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Augsburg's projected output up. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 23 games and FC Augsburg's last 57.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 25% | Draw 30% | FC Augsburg 45%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 3.95 | Draw 3.34 | FC Augsburg 2.24. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 25% | Draw 30% | FC Augsburg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.06 / FC Augsburg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.650 / def 1.360 | FC Augsburg attack 0.861 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Augsburg xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 6 FC Augsburg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 25% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SV Darmstadt 98's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 23 games and FC Augsburg's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
25%
3.95
30%
3.34
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.53
1.47
FC Augsburg xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
6%
17.20
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.47 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 22W 14D 21L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
FC Augsburg's form line: 15W 15D 27L from 57 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.40 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 28 home games (11W 8D 9L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 5W 6D 17L from their last 28 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.32 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 67%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 14D 21L in their last 57 games (1.40 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 15W 15D 27L in their last 57 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or FC Augsburg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.46 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Augsburg?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: SV Darmstadt 98 0-6 FC Augsburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 54%, FC Augsburg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 61% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Augsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 68% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 61% of FC Augsburg's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 93% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Augsburg run riot with a 0-6 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-6 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.06 xG and FC Augsburg 1.47 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.47 projection by 4.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.65 / defence 1.36 against FC Augsburg attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 25% | Draw 30% | FC Augsburg 45%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 53%, FC Augsburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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