SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Bochum meet at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 0W 1D 6L across 7 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.14 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 2.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.71 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 2L this season (3 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Bochum have collected 0.57 PPG across 7 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 2.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.29 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. VfL Bochum have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 4L across 4 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 3.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.14 vs 0.57 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
VfL Bochum half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71% versus VfL Bochum 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71% | VfL Bochum 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.69 xG and VfL Bochum 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.684 / defence 1.269 | VfL Bochum attack 0.583 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.234. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 7 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 17%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | VfL Bochum 5.88. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | VfL Bochum 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.69 / VfL Bochum 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.684 / def 1.269 | VfL Bochum attack 0.583 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.736 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
0.91
VfL Bochum xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 53% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Bochum?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Bochum in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-1D-6L in 7 | 0.14 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 2.71 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. VfL Bochum (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 2.29 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against VfL Bochum's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.58x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
53%
1.90
30%
3.34
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.60
0.91
VfL Bochum xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
3%
31.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.91 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 0W 1D 6L from 7 games, a 0.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Bochum, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 5L across 7 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Bochum, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfL Bochum by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfL Bochum's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 0.57 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; VfL Bochum in 29%.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
VfL Bochum
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 6L in their last 7 games (0.14 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or VfL Bochum away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.33 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VfL Bochum have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Bochum won 0-3 on 29 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
4
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Bochum?
From 4 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, VfL Bochum have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when VfL Bochum 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Bochum?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
VfL Bochum see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%, VfL Bochum 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 100% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 33% of games; VfL Bochum in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 33% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 100% of VfL Bochum's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Bochum defy the odds to beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.69 xG and VfL Bochum 0.91 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.68 / defence 1.27 against VfL Bochum attack 0.58 / defence 1.42, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 17%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a VfL Bochum win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71%, VfL Bochum 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Bochum arrived the stronger side — 0.57 PPG against 0.14. Form held, and they took the win. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.