SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as SC Paderborn 07 welcome VfB Stuttgart to Home Deluxe Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 6W 3D 1L at Home Deluxe Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Paderborn 07 1.60 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 63% and VfB Stuttgart 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 60% | VfB Stuttgart 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.05 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.161 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.940 / away 1.339. VfB Stuttgart bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 SC Paderborn 07 games / 35 VfB Stuttgart games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 44% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 34%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | VfB Stuttgart 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.83 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 100% | VfB Stuttgart 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 44% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.05 / VfB Stuttgart 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.161 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.940 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.79
VfB Stuttgart xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 44% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
44%
2.28
23%
4.44
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.83
1.79
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.74
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
13%
7.75
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
4%
23.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.79 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 35 games, going 18W 9D 8L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.77 PPG from 35 outings (18W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.80 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfB Stuttgart's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.06 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 18W 8D 9L in their last 35 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.94 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.35 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 31%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 82%, VfB Stuttgart at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Paderborn 07 and 100% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 82% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 100% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.