SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as SC Paderborn 07 welcome 1. FC Köln to Home Deluxe Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 January 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Home Deluxe Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Köln — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 0.90 (1. FC Köln). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 57% and 1. FC Köln 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 57% | 1. FC Köln 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.31 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.662 / defence 0.954 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.772 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 SC Paderborn 07 games / 42 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 43% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 28%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Köln 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SC Paderborn 07 70% | 1. FC Köln 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 43% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.31 / 1. FC Köln 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.662 / def 0.954 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.772 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.01
1. FC Köln xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 43% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln?
Record (2 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.45
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.33
1.01
1. FC Köln xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.01 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 42 games, going 20W 11D 11L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 0.98 PPG from 42 outings (9W 14D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 12W 3D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (2W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.38 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 79%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 9W 14D 19L in their last 42 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Köln away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.86 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.67 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
0
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln?
From 2 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when SC Paderborn 07 1-2 1. FC Köln.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 71%, 1. FC Köln at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SC Paderborn 07) and 52% (1. FC Köln). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 71% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 52% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.