SC Freiburg 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Europa-Park Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FSV Mainz 05 in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Freiburg lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
FSV Mainz 05 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 58% versus FSV Mainz 05 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 61% | FSV Mainz 05 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.38 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.870 / defence 0.945 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.000 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.412. Data: 41 SC Freiburg games / 41 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 38% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 36%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | FSV Mainz 05 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | FSV Mainz 05 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 38% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG SC Freiburg 1.38 / FSV Mainz 05 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.870 / def 0.945 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.000 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FSV Mainz 05 xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 38% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (2 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 2 | FSV Mainz 05 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against FSV Mainz 05's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (1.00x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.78
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.71
1.33
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.33 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg come into this having played 41 games, going 19W 12D 10L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.39 PPG from 41 outings (16W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.39 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Freiburg's home form reads 9W 6D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (6W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.39 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 19W 12D 10L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.65 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or FSV Mainz 05 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Freiburg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SC Freiburg
6
Draws
0
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 4, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for SC Freiburg, 75% for FSV Mainz 05 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for SC Freiburg and 70% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SC Freiburg's games and 75% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SC Freiburg's matches and 70% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out FSV Mainz 05 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.38 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.33 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.00 / defence 1.14, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 38% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 36%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 61%, FSV Mainz 05 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.68 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.