SC Freiburg 2-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Europa-Park Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for SC Freiburg, 0.90 for FC Augsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, SC Freiburg are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 3–1 with SC Freiburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Freiburg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 49% versus FC Augsburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 51% | FC Augsburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.94 xG and FC Augsburg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.912 / defence 1.006 | FC Augsburg attack 0.858 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.928 / away 1.453. Data: 39 SC Freiburg games / 39 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 53% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 24%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | FC Augsburg 4.17. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 50% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 53% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG SC Freiburg 1.94 / FC Augsburg 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.912 / def 1.006 | FC Augsburg attack 0.858 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.928 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC Augsburg xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg 2 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 53% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
Record (4 meetings): SC Freiburg 4W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.86x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
53%
1.87
22%
4.50
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.20
1.25
FC Augsburg xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
3%
28.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.25 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 19W 9D 11L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Augsburg's form line: 10W 9D 20L from 39 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SC Freiburg are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (11W 4D 4L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 3D 13L from 19 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.31 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 64%.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 19W 9D 11L in their last 39 games (1.69 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 10W 9D 20L in their last 39 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.95 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.63 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 53%, FC Augsburg 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (SC Freiburg) and 74% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SC Freiburg's games and 74% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of SC Freiburg's matches and 74% of FC Augsburg's.
Do SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat FC Augsburg 2-0 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.94 xG and FC Augsburg 1.25 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against FC Augsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 53% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 24%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 51%, FC Augsburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.