SC Freiburg 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Freiburg at 1.80 PPG versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 1, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 6–0 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 59% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 62% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.01 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.122 / defence 1.040 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.017 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.281. Data: 64 SC Freiburg games / 64 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 52% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 25%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.00. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 52% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG SC Freiburg 2.01 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.122 / def 1.040 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.017 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
SC Freiburg 3 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 52% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (1 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.24
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.36
1.35
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
3%
30.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.35 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 26W 18D 20L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 23W 17D 24L from 64 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.50 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.72 PPG from 32 outings (15W 10D 7L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 9D 14L from 32 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.66 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 69%.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Current Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 26W 18D 20L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 23W 17D 24L in their last 64 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.72 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when SC Freiburg won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Freiburg
5
Draws
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 5, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 66%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for SC Freiburg and 69% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of SC Freiburg's games and 66% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of SC Freiburg's matches and 69% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 31, as SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.01 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.35 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.12 / defence 1.04 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.02 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 52% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 25%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 62%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.50 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.