SC Freiburg 0-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Bayern München fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Bayern München travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 April 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Europa-Park Stadion this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayern München stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayern München have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Freiburg 1.70 PPG, Bayern München 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bayern München, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for SC Freiburg.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–5 with Bayern München winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
SC Freiburg trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bayern München trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 60% and Bayern München 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 58% | Bayern München 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.50 xG and Bayern München 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.915 / defence 0.865 | Bayern München attack 1.328 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.748 / away 1.265. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 SC Freiburg games / 60 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 36% | Draw 31% | Bayern München 34%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Bayern München 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Bayern München 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 36% | Draw 31% | Bayern München 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 63% | xG SC Freiburg 1.50 / Bayern München 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.915 / def 0.865 | Bayern München attack 1.328 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.748 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Bayern München xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Bayern München kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
SC Freiburg 0 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München part of?
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 36% chance of winning, Bayern München a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SC Freiburg and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
Record (3 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 0 | Bayern München 3W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayern München in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Bayern München (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 0.92x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
36%
2.80
31%
3.26
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.95
1.45
Bayern München xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.45 for Bayern München, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 28W 18D 14L from 60 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München, meanwhile, have gone 40W 12D 8L across 60 games — 2.20 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayern München by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Freiburg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 16W 9D 5L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayern München's away record stands at 18W 6D 6L across 30 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.88 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Bayern München in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayern München in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 28W 18D 14L in their last 60 games (1.70 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 40W 12D 8L in their last 60 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.90 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.00 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bayern München in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Bayern München runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bayern München have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bayern München won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
9
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 0, Bayern München have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 70%, Bayern München at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for SC Freiburg and 73% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of SC Freiburg's games and 73% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SC Freiburg's matches and 73% of Bayern München's.
Do SC Freiburg and Bayern München tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bayern München defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat SC Freiburg 0-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.50 xG and Bayern München 1.45 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Bayern München attack 1.33 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 36% | Draw 31% | Bayern München 34%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bayern München win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 58%, Bayern München 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayern München's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.70. Form held, and they took the win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.