Hertha BSC 1-2 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees FSV Mainz 05 travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hertha BSC's home record at Olympiastadion Berlin: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FSV Mainz 05's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hertha BSC 1.00 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hertha BSC, 1 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2021, ended 0–4 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 56% versus FSV Mainz 05 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 59% | FSV Mainz 05 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 2.13 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.969 / defence 1.314 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.799 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.411. FSV Mainz 05 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Hertha BSC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Hertha BSC games / 66 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 52% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 26%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | FSV Mainz 05 3.85. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 70% | FSV Mainz 05 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 52% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Hertha BSC 2.13 / FSV Mainz 05 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.969 / def 1.314 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.799 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
FSV Mainz 05 xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05?
Hertha BSC 1 - 2 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 52% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (3 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 2 | FSV Mainz 05 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.97) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.42
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.61
1.48
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
3%
32.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.48 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 17W 17D 32L from 66 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 29L across 66 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.03 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 11W 8D 14L from 33 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 8W 7D 18L across 33 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.29 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 17W 17D 32L in their last 66 games (1.03 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 22W 15D 29L in their last 66 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.24 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2021, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Hertha BSC
4
Draws
2
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 0, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Hertha BSC 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 58%, FSV Mainz 05 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Hertha BSC and 64% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hertha BSC's games and 70% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hertha BSC's matches and 64% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FSV Mainz 05 defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Hertha BSC 1-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 2.13 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.97 / defence 1.31 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.80 / defence 1.34, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 52% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 26%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual FSV Mainz 05 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 59%, FSV Mainz 05 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.03 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.