Hertha BSC 1-4 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt meet at Olympiastadion Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hertha BSC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hertha BSC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Olympiastadion Berlin — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Eintracht Frankfurt are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hertha BSC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hertha BSC, 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hertha BSC half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 57% and Eintracht Frankfurt 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.43 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.846 / defence 1.397 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.077 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.354. Data: 58 Hertha BSC games / 58 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 26% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 51%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1.96. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 80% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 26% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Hertha BSC 1.43 / Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.846 / def 1.397 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.077 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.764 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Hertha BSC 1 - 4 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 26% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (3 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.08x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
26%
3.83
23%
4.34
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.47
2.04
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
3.83
26%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
13%
7.67
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
3%
29.34
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 2.04 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 16D 28L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 24W 19D 15L from 58 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Eintracht Frankfurt are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 1.21 PPG from 29 outings (9W 8D 12L).
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 11W 8D 10L from 29 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.76 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 76%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 14W 16D 28L in their last 58 games (1.00 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 19D 15L in their last 58 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.21 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Frankfurt won 1-4 on 5 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 59% for Hertha BSC, 76% for Eintracht Frankfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Hertha BSC and 66% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hertha BSC's games and 76% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Hertha BSC's matches and 66% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Hertha BSC 1-4 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.43 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 2.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.85 / defence 1.40 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 26% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 51%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 60%, Eintracht Frankfurt 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.