Hertha BSC 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Arminia Bielefeld travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hertha BSC 1.30 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hertha BSC, 1 for Arminia Bielefeld and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2021, ended 0–1 with Arminia Bielefeld winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 53% versus Arminia Bielefeld 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 57% | Arminia Bielefeld 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.76 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.002 / defence 1.238 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.630 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.274. Arminia Bielefeld bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Hertha BSC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Hertha BSC games / 31 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 54% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 20%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Arminia Bielefeld 5.00. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hertha BSC 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 54% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Hertha BSC 1.76 / Arminia Bielefeld 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.002 / def 1.238 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.630 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Arminia Bielefeld xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Hertha BSC 0 - 0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 54% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (1 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 0 | Arminia Bielefeld 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arminia Bielefeld's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.76
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.75
0.99
Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
3%
29.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 0.99 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 7W 9D 14L from 30 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Arminia Bielefeld, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 17L across 30 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.00 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 5W 3D 6L from 14 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record stands at 2W 4D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.73 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Current Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 7W 9D 14L in their last 30 games (1.00 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 8W 5D 17L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.29 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Arminia Bielefeld specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
3
Draws
2
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 43%, Arminia Bielefeld 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Hertha BSC and 57% for Arminia Bielefeld. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 36% of games; Arminia Bielefeld in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 43% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Hertha BSC's matches and 57% of Arminia Bielefeld's.
Do Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hertha BSC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld finished level at 0-0 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.76 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.99 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Arminia Bielefeld landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.63 / defence 1.35, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 54% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 20%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 57%, Arminia Bielefeld 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.00 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.