Hamburger SV 1-3 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart at Volksparkstadion in Bundesliga, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hamburger SV at Volksparkstadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Hamburger SV have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hamburger SV have won 0, VfB Stuttgart 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2023, ended 0–3 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 62% and VfB Stuttgart 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 57% | VfB Stuttgart 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.60 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.104 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.813 / away 1.298. Data: 0 Hamburger SV games / 68 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 37%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | VfB Stuttgart 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hamburger SV (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 50% | VfB Stuttgart 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG Hamburger SV 1.60 / VfB Stuttgart 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.104 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.813 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.65
VfB Stuttgart xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 5 June 2023 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Hamburger SV 1 - 3 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart is a Relegation Round fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 35% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 1W.
What form are Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.64
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.25
1.65
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
7%
14.72
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.65 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV come into this having played 37 games, going 17W 12D 8L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.08 PPG from 37 outings (9W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hamburger SV's home form reads 9W 6D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (2W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.41 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 73%.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 17W 12D 8L in their last 37 games (1.70 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.83 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hamburger SV
0
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?
From 4 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hamburger SV at 67%, VfB Stuttgart at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hamburger SV and 78% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hamburger SV's games and 78% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hamburger SV's matches and 78% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hamburger SV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Hamburger SV 1-3 at Volksparkstadion, Relegation Round, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.60 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 37%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 57%, VfB Stuttgart 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with VfB Stuttgart winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.