FSV Mainz 05 4-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05 at MEWA ARENA this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Augsburg have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 0.90 for FC Augsburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 55% versus FC Augsburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 48% | FC Augsburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.24 xG and FC Augsburg 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.815 / defence 0.835 | FC Augsburg attack 0.699 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.271. Data: 42 FSV Mainz 05 games / 42 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 45% | Draw 36% | FC Augsburg 19%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.22 | Draw 2.78 | FC Augsburg 5.26. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 50% | FC Augsburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 45% | Draw 36% | FC Augsburg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.24 / FC Augsburg 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.815 / def 0.835 | FC Augsburg attack 0.699 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.74
FC Augsburg xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 October 2021 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
FSV Mainz 05 4 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 45% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 19% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.81) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.70x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
45%
2.23
36%
2.75
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
1.99
0.74
FC Augsburg xG
2.23
45%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
5%
18.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.74 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 13W 10D 19L from 42 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 22L across 42 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.00 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 6W 5D 10L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 4W 4D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 0.95 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 11W 9D 22L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or FC Augsburg away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.10 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FSV Mainz 05
1
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 48%, FC Augsburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (FSV Mainz 05) and 48% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Augsburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 48% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 48% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Augsburg 4-1 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.24 xG and FC Augsburg 0.74 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against FC Augsburg attack 0.70 / defence 0.91, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 45% | Draw 36% | FC Augsburg 19%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 48%, FC Augsburg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.17 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.