Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Bochum make the trip to Düsseldorf Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in Bundesliga, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Monday 27 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Düsseldorf Arena, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Bochum have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Bochum's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Fortuna Düsseldorf's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Düsseldorf register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, VfL Bochum in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Düsseldorf lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2024, ended 3–0 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 54% and VfL Bochum 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 63% | VfL Bochum 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.04 xG and VfL Bochum 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | VfL Bochum attack 0.877 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.434. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 68 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 49% | Draw 25% | VfL Bochum 25%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | VfL Bochum 4.00. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% | VfL Bochum 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 49% | Draw 25% | VfL Bochum 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.04 / VfL Bochum 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | VfL Bochum attack 0.877 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.45
VfL Bochum xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 27 May 2024 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 - 3 VfL Bochum.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum is a Relegation Round fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 49% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. VfL Bochum (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.85x the league average against VfL Bochum's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.88x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 0/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.93
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.49
1.45
VfL Bochum xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
3%
30.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.45 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 18W 7D 10L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Bochum's form line: 7W 12D 16L from 35 games, 0.94 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Bochum.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 2.18 PPG from 17 outings (11W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Fortuna Düsseldorf are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 2W 4D 11L from 17 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Bochum in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
VfL Bochum
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 games (1.74 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 7W 12D 16L in their last 35 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or VfL Bochum away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 2.18 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-3 on 23 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 65%, VfL Bochum 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 71% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 59% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 71% of VfL Bochum's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfL Bochum run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 at Düsseldorf Arena, Relegation Round, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.04 xG and VfL Bochum 1.45 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 2.0 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against VfL Bochum attack 0.88 / defence 1.40, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 49% | Draw 25% | VfL Bochum 25%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a VfL Bochum win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 63%, VfL Bochum 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with VfL Bochum winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.