FC St. Pauli 0-3 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05 meet at Millerntor-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Millerntor-Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05 away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
FSV Mainz 05 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 59% and FSV Mainz 05 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 54% | FSV Mainz 05 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.02 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.586 / defence 0.924 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.191 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.686. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.586 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 FC St. Pauli games / 39 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 19% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 55%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | FSV Mainz 05 1.82. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 40% | FSV Mainz 05 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 19% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.02 / FSV Mainz 05 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.586 / def 0.924 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.191 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.686 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.86
FSV Mainz 05 xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 3 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 19% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05 in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (0.59) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (1.19x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
19%
5.31
26%
3.88
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.87
1.86
FSV Mainz 05 xG
5.31
19%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
16%
6.40
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
3%
33.98
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.86 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 21W 10D 8L from 39 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 8W 16D 15L across 39 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 11W 6D 2L from 19 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 2W 10D 7L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.21 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 21W 10D 8L in their last 39 games (1.87 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 8W 16D 15L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.05 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.84 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or FSV Mainz 05 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 0-3 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
3
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 0, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 53%, FSV Mainz 05 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC St. Pauli) and 58% (FSV Mainz 05).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 26% of games; FSV Mainz 05 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC St. Pauli's games and 74% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 58% of FSV Mainz 05's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat FC St. Pauli 0-3 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.02 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.86 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 1.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.59 / defence 0.92 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.19 / defence 1.04, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 19% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 55%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 54%, FSV Mainz 05 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with FSV Mainz 05 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.