1. FC Heidenheim 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host VfL Wolfsburg at Voith-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 20 January 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1 for VfL Wolfsburg and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 0–2 VfL Wolfsburg — a VfL Wolfsburg win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 53% versus VfL Wolfsburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 57% | VfL Wolfsburg 61%). Note also that VfL Wolfsburg surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while 1. FC Heidenheim recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.02 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.984 / defence 1.281 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.843 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.808 / away 1.268. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VfL Wolfsburg's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 17 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 51.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.96 | Draw 4.05 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.11. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.02 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 50% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.02 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.984 / def 1.281 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.843 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.808 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.37
VfL Wolfsburg xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 51% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 0.98x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 17 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
51%
1.96
25%
4.05
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.39
1.37
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
13%
7.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
3%
31.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.37 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 25W 13D 13L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 19W 12D 20L from 51 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.73 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2.24 PPG from their last 25 home games (17W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 9W 4D 12L from their last 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.53 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 19W 12D 20L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.24 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.24 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
4
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, VfL Wolfsburg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 52%, VfL Wolfsburg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 52% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; VfL Wolfsburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 44% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 52% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 68% of VfL Wolfsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 18, as 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.02 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.37 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.98 / defence 1.28 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 24%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 57%, VfL Wolfsburg 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.73 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 18
All Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →