1. FC Heidenheim 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host SV Darmstadt 98 at Voith-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Voith-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Heidenheim at 1.00 PPG versus SV Darmstadt 98's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 51% versus SV Darmstadt 98 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 57% | SV Darmstadt 98 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.08 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.844 / defence 1.127 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.756 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.859 / away 1.416. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 1. FC Heidenheim games / 13 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 56% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 20%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | SV Darmstadt 98 5.00. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Heidenheim 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 56% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.08 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.844 / def 1.127 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.756 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.859 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 56% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 2W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.08
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.29
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
2%
40.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.21 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 22W 12D 13L from 47 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 15L across 47 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.66 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 15W 5D 3L from 23 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 10W 3D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.38 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 22W 12D 13L in their last 47 games (1.66 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.17 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.43 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 48%, SV Darmstadt 98 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 56% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 48% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 56% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SV Darmstadt 98 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SV Darmstadt 98 3-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.08 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.76 / defence 1.33, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 56% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 20%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 57%, SV Darmstadt 98 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.66 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.