1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as 1. FC Heidenheim welcome Hamburger SV to Voith-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2W 3D 5L at Voith-Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (1. FC Heidenheim) versus 1.10 (Hamburger SV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hamburger SV have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Hamburger SV winning.
It is worth noting that Hamburger SV have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hamburger SV trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 51% versus Hamburger SV 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Heidenheim 64% | Hamburger SV 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.34 xG and Hamburger SV 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.725 / defence 1.328 | Hamburger SV attack 0.582 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.461. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 1. FC Heidenheim games / 19 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 31% | Hamburger SV 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Hamburger SV 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Hamburger SV 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 31% | Hamburger SV 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.34 / Hamburger SV 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.725 / def 1.328 | Hamburger SV attack 0.582 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hamburger SV xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 40% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 2 | Hamburger SV 3W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.72) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
40%
2.51
31%
3.27
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.47
1.13
Hamburger SV xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.13 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 53 games, going 10W 10D 33L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.47 PPG from 53 outings (20W 18D 15L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 4W 6D 16L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.19 points per game from 26 outings (8W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.83 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 10D 33L in their last 53 games (0.75 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 20W 18D 15L in their last 53 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 0.69 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hamburger SV have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 46%, Hamburger SV 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 69% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 50% of games; Hamburger SV in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 58% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 69% of Hamburger SV's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.34 xG and Hamburger SV 1.13 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.72 / defence 1.33 against Hamburger SV attack 0.58 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 31% | Hamburger SV 30%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 64%, Hamburger SV 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.