1. FC Heidenheim 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Heidenheim face Borussia Mönchengladbach.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim welcome Borussia Mönchengladbach to Voith-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.10 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 80% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's (from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 1–2 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a Borussia Mönchengladbach win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 56% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 56% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%). Note also that Borussia Mönchengladbach surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while 1. FC Heidenheim recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.59 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.849 / defence 1.117 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.357. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 25 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 59.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.51 | Draw 3.72 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.59 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.849 / def 1.117 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 40% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.85) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 25 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.72
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.04
1.45
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.45 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 26W 17D 16L from 59 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 23L across 59 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Heidenheim by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 17W 7D 5L from their last 29 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 2W 12D 15L across their last 29 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.64 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 66%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 26W 17D 16L in their last 59 games (1.61 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 17W 19D 23L in their last 59 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.00 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.62 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Mar 2025, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1. FC Heidenheim 0-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Heidenheim at 55%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 72% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 76% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 72% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 83% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 26, as 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.59 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.45 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 33%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 56%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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