FC Augsburg 3-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as FC Augsburg welcome VfL Wolfsburg to WWK Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Augsburg have posted 3W 4D 3L at WWK Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Augsburg at 0.80 PPG versus VfL Wolfsburg's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Augsburg, 1 for VfL Wolfsburg and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 64% versus VfL Wolfsburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 62% | VfL Wolfsburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.69 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.903 / defence 1.184 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.852 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.867 / away 1.533. Data: 42 FC Augsburg games / 42 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 41% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | VfL Wolfsburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 41% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Augsburg 1.69 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.903 / def 1.184 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.852 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.867 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.54
VfL Wolfsburg xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
FC Augsburg 3 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 41% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (4 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 2 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.90x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
41%
2.42
24%
4.23
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.23
1.54
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
6%
15.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.54 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 9D 22L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 17W 10D 15L from 42 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VfL Wolfsburg are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 8W 3D 10L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.62 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 11W 9D 22L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 17W 10D 15L in their last 42 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.29 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.29 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Augsburg have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when FC Augsburg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Augsburg
3
Draws
1
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 6, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 57%, VfL Wolfsburg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Augsburg) and 48% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 38% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 48% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out VfL Wolfsburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 3-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.69 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.18 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 41% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 35%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 62%, VfL Wolfsburg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.